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Ryan Bird v Graham Higgins (Wed 10 Jul 2013)

Match won by Ryan Bird. Result: 20-18,18-20,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Ryan Bird: 1,646, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Graham Higgins: 1,224, level confidence: 58%.
Ryan Bird to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Graham Higgins.

Ryan Bird won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Bird played 19% better than Graham Higgins in this match.

As Ryan Bird has played below his allowed range at 1,496, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ryan Bird would normally have been playing at level 1,600 (based on typical behaviour), Graham Higgins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Bird changes to -2.4% and Graham Higgins changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Bird becomes -2% and for Graham Higgins becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Ryan Bird is -1.3% and for Graham Higgins is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Bird: 77%, Graham Higgins: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Bird: 73%, Graham Higgins: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Bird: 1,623, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Graham Higgins: 1,248, level confidence: 72%.