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Peter Learyjnr v Fred Lane (Thu 09 Dec 2010)

Match won by Fred Lane. Result: 15-13,12-15,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,573, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fred Lane: 1,493, level confidence: 51%.
Peter Learyjnr to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Fred Lane.

Fred Lane won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fred Lane played 23% better than Peter Learyjnr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fred Lane actually played at a level of 1,698 and Peter Learyjnr at a level of 1,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fred Lane changes to +13% and Peter Learyjnr changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fred Lane becomes +6.8% and for Peter Learyjnr becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Fred Lane is +5.1% and for Peter Learyjnr is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fred Lane: 71%, Peter Learyjnr: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fred Lane: 63%, Peter Learyjnr: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,519, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Fred Lane: 1,567, level confidence: 63%.