Emma Booth v Carmel Horgan (Mon 13 Dec 2010)
Match won by Carmel Horgan. Result: 11-15,11-15,15-10,13-15.
Starting level for
Emma Booth:
161, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Carmel Horgan:
223, level confidence: 61%.
Carmel Horgan to win as she is currently playing
39% better than Emma Booth.
Carmel Horgan won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carmel Horgan played
20% better than Emma Booth in this match.
As Carmel Horgan has played below her allowed range at 200, her level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Carmel Horgan would normally have been playing at level 216 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan changes to -2.9% and Emma Booth changes to +3.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan becomes -2.9% and for Emma Booth becomes +3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Carmel Horgan is -2.2% and for Emma Booth is +2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carmel Horgan: 78%, Emma Booth: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carmel Horgan: 72%, Emma Booth: 83%.
Final level for Emma Booth:
165, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Carmel Horgan:
218, level confidence: 72%.