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Julian Vecchio v Justin Turnpenny (Tue 23 Jul 2013)

Match won by Julian Vecchio. Result: 8-15,15-5,15-9,15-8.

Starting level for Julian Vecchio: 2,520, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,358, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Julian Vecchio to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Justin Turnpenny.

Julian Vecchio won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Vecchio played 31% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Julian Vecchio was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,966 and 2,520 without affecting his level.

As Julian Vecchio has played below his allowed range at 1,871, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Julian Vecchio would normally have been playing at level 2,268 (based on typical behaviour), Justin Turnpenny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 9.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio changes to -3.7% and Justin Turnpenny changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio becomes -2.4% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Julian Vecchio is -1.6% and for Justin Turnpenny is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Vecchio: 79%, Justin Turnpenny: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Vecchio: 67%, Justin Turnpenny: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Vecchio: 2,477, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,396, level confidence: 75%.