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Matt Potter v Keeley Peacock (Thu 16 Dec 2010)

Match won by Matt Potter. Result: 15-11,15-10,15-2.

Starting level for Matt Potter: 3,281, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,155, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Matt Potter to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Keeley Peacock.

Matt Potter won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Potter played 96% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matt Potter was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,842 and 3,281 without affecting his level.

In this case, Matt Potter played at level 2,395 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matt Potter would normally have been playing at level 2,539 (based on typical behaviour), Keeley Peacock played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Potter changes to 0% and Keeley Peacock changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Potter becomes 0% and for Keeley Peacock becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Matt Potter is 0% and for Keeley Peacock is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Potter: 89%, Keeley Peacock: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Potter: 74%, Keeley Peacock: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Potter: 3,276, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,179, level confidence: 75%.