Paul Green v Pete Burdett (Tue 23 Jul 2013)
Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 15-9,7-15,12-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Paul Green:
2,501, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Pete Burdett:
3,015, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Paul Green.
Pete Burdett won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played
23% better than Paul Green in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pete Burdett actually played at a level of
3,050 and Paul Green at a level of
2,472. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to +1% and Paul Green changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes +0.7% and for Paul Green becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is +0.4% and for Paul Green is -0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 92%, Paul Green: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 91%, Paul Green: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Green:
2,485, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Pete Burdett:
3,023, level confidence: 91%.