Ross Proudfoot v Michael Herd (Tue 23 Jul 2013)
Match won by Ross Proudfoot. Result: 18-16,9-15,15-13,15-5.
Starting level for
Ross Proudfoot:
2,078, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for
Michael Herd:
2,410, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Michael Herd to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Ross Proudfoot.
Ross Proudfoot won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Proudfoot played
22% better than Michael Herd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Proudfoot actually played at a level of
2,473 and Michael Herd at a level of
2,025. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot changes to +18% and Michael Herd changes to -7.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot becomes +7.5% and for Michael Herd becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot is +4.9% and for Michael Herd is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Proudfoot: 61%, Michael Herd: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Proudfoot: 52%, Michael Herd: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ross Proudfoot:
2,176, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Michael Herd:
2,351, level confidence: 77%.