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Richard Carr v Chris Lynam (Tue 23 Jul 2013)

Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 15-11,12-15,15-10,15-13.

Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,745, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,799, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Lynam to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Richard Carr.

Richard Carr won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played 22% better than Chris Lynam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Carr actually played at a level of 3,063 and Chris Lynam at a level of 2,508. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to +9.3% and Chris Lynam changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes +4.2% and for Chris Lynam becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is +2.7% and for Chris Lynam is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 94%, Chris Lynam: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 84%, Chris Lynam: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Carr: 2,816, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,710, level confidence: 76%.