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Jack Taylor v Michael Broadbent (Tue 23 Jul 2013)

Match won by Jack Taylor. Result: 15-1,15-6,15-8.

Starting level for Jack Taylor: 1,787, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,242, level confidence: 69%.
Jack Taylor to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Michael Broadbent.

Jack Taylor won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Taylor played 200% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Taylor actually played at a level of 2,580 and Michael Broadbent at a level of 860. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Taylor changes to +34% and Michael Broadbent changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Taylor becomes +13.6% and for Michael Broadbent becomes -17%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jack Taylor is +8.9% and for Michael Broadbent is -10.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Michael Broadbent is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Taylor: 86%, Michael Broadbent: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Taylor: 59%, Michael Broadbent: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Taylor: 1,943, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,181, level confidence: 57%.