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Dave Cooper v David Gandolfo (Wed 24 Jul 2013)

Match won by Dave Cooper. Result: 7-15,15-5,16-14,9-15,15-12.

Starting level for Dave Cooper: 1,661, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for David Gandolfo: 2,099, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
David Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Dave Cooper.

Dave Cooper won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Cooper played 8% better than David Gandolfo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Cooper actually played at a level of 1,940 and David Gandolfo at a level of 1,797. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Cooper changes to +15% and David Gandolfo changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Cooper becomes +7.1% and for David Gandolfo becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Dave Cooper is +4.6% and for David Gandolfo is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Cooper: 59%, David Gandolfo: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Cooper: 51%, David Gandolfo: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Cooper: 1,735, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for David Gandolfo: 2,052, level confidence: 79%.