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Matt McGill v Vinh Tram (Wed 24 Jul 2013)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 15-17,7-15,15-8,15-4,15-7.

Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,572, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Vinh Tram: 1,408, level confidence: 60%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Vinh Tram.

Matt McGill won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 15% better than Vinh Tram in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt McGill actually played at a level of 1,598 and Vinh Tram at a level of 1,385. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to +1.2% and Vinh Tram changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes +1% and for Vinh Tram becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is +0.7% and for Vinh Tram is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 88%, Vinh Tram: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 87%, Vinh Tram: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt McGill: 1,580, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Vinh Tram: 1,394, level confidence: 76%.