Julian Craxton v Nick Newson (Wed 24 Jul 2013)
Match won by Julian Craxton. Result: 15-10,15-13,15-12.
Starting level for
Julian Craxton:
1,559, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Newson:
1,091, level confidence: 57%.
Julian Craxton to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Nick Newson.
Julian Craxton won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Craxton played
37% better than Nick Newson in this match.
In this case, Julian Craxton played at level 1,498 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nick Newson is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Craxton changes to 0% and Nick Newson changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Craxton: 85%, Nick Newson: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Craxton: 83%, Nick Newson: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Julian Craxton:
1,557, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nick Newson:
1,089, level confidence: 74%.