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Martin Miller v Jeremy Smith (Tue 11 Jan 2011)

Match won by Martin Miller. Result: 15-5,16-14,18-16.

Starting level for Martin Miller: 736, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jeremy Smith: 1,007, level confidence: 69%.
Jeremy Smith to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Martin Miller.

Martin Miller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Miller played 45% better than Jeremy Smith in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Miller actually played at a level of 1,036 and Jeremy Smith at a level of 715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Miller changes to +34% and Jeremy Smith changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Miller becomes +17.5% and for Jeremy Smith becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Martin Miller is +13% and for Jeremy Smith is -12%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martin Miller is limited to +10% and Jeremy Smith is limited to -8.1% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Miller: 80%, Jeremy Smith: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Miller: 57%, Jeremy Smith: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Miller: 808, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Jeremy Smith: 931, level confidence: 59%.