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Tom Lo v Paul Green (Tue 30 Jul 2013)

Match won by Tom Lo. Result: 15-6,16-18,9-15,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Tom Lo: 2,994, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Green: 2,484, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tom Lo to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Paul Green.

Tom Lo won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Lo played 13% better than Paul Green in this match.

As Tom Lo has played below his allowed range at 2,864, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Lo would normally have been playing at level 2,961 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Green played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Lo changes to -1.7% and Paul Green changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Lo becomes -1.1% and for Paul Green becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tom Lo is -0.7% and for Paul Green is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Lo: 85%, Paul Green: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Lo: 82%, Paul Green: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Lo: 2,968, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Paul Green: 2,503, level confidence: 89%.