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Luke Stewart v James Nield (Tue 11 Jan 2011)

Match won by Luke Stewart. Result: 15-9,16-14,15-9.

Starting level for Luke Stewart: 1,462, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for James Nield: 1,876, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
James Nield to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Luke Stewart.

Luke Stewart won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Stewart played 47% better than James Nield in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Stewart actually played at a level of 2,011 and James Nield at a level of 1,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Stewart changes to +33% and James Nield changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Stewart becomes +14.3% and for James Nield becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Luke Stewart is +10.7% and for James Nield is -9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Luke Stewart is limited to +10% and James Nield is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Stewart: 82%, James Nield: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Stewart: 60%, James Nield: 61%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Stewart: 1,606, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for James Nield: 1,794, level confidence: 61%.