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Kevin Springham v Robin Aris (Tue 30 Jul 2013)

Match won by Kevin Springham. Result: 15-11,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Kevin Springham: 2,406, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Robin Aris: 2,246, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Kevin Springham to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Robin Aris.

Kevin Springham won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Springham played 48% better than Robin Aris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Springham actually played at a level of 2,832 and Robin Aris at a level of 1,908. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Springham changes to +17% and Robin Aris changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Springham becomes +7% and for Robin Aris becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Kevin Springham is +4.6% and for Robin Aris is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Springham: 74%, Robin Aris: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Springham: 63%, Robin Aris: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Springham: 2,512, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Robin Aris: 2,163, level confidence: 71%.