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Joe Weavers v Tim Bloomer (Tue 30 Jul 2013)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 15-10,8-15,10-15,6-15.

Starting level for Joe Weavers: 1,715, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 3,224, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Joe Weavers.

Tim Bloomer won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 30% better than Joe Weavers in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Bloomer was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,491 and 3,224 without affecting his level.

As Tim Bloomer has played below his allowed range at 2,359, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Bloomer would normally have been playing at level 2,889 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Weavers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to -3.6% and Joe Weavers changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes -2.2% and for Joe Weavers becomes +5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is -1.4% and for Joe Weavers is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 90%, Joe Weavers: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 75%, Joe Weavers: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Weavers: 1,769, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tim Bloomer: 3,174, level confidence: 75%.