John McFarlane v Philip Waller (Tue 11 Jan 2011)
Match won by Philip Waller. Result: 15-12,9-15,15-13,14-16,9-15.
Starting level for
John McFarlane:
2,739, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Philip Waller:
4,133, level confidence: 49%.
Philip Waller to win as he is currently playing
51% better than John McFarlane.
Philip Waller won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Philip Waller played
11% better than John McFarlane in this match.
As Philip Waller has played below his allowed range at 3,350, his level reduction is 10.1% before damping. On the assumption that Philip Waller would normally have been playing at level 3,929 (based on typical behaviour), John McFarlane played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 10.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Philip Waller changes to -8.1% and John McFarlane changes to +7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Philip Waller becomes -3.4% and for John McFarlane becomes +3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Philip Waller is -2.5% and for John McFarlane is +2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Philip Waller: 70%, John McFarlane: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Philip Waller: 60%, John McFarlane: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John McFarlane:
2,812, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Philip Waller:
4,025, level confidence: 60%.