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Andrew Clark v Dean Felkner (Tue 11 Jan 2011)

Match won by Dean Felkner. Result: 15-13,18-20,10-15,14-16.

Starting level for Andrew Clark: 1,707, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Dean Felkner: 1,858, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Dean Felkner to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Andrew Clark.

Dean Felkner won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dean Felkner played 21% better than Andrew Clark in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dean Felkner actually played at a level of 1,957 and Andrew Clark at a level of 1,620. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dean Felkner changes to +4.2% and Andrew Clark changes to -5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dean Felkner becomes +2.8% and for Andrew Clark becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dean Felkner is +2.1% and for Andrew Clark is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dean Felkner: 85%, Andrew Clark: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dean Felkner: 81%, Andrew Clark: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Clark: 1,663, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Dean Felkner: 1,894, level confidence: 81%.