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Phil Littlefair v Dave Relf (Tue 11 Jan 2011)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 12-15,17-15,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,530, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Relf: 987, level confidence: 56%.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Dave Relf.

Phil Littlefair won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 24% better than Dave Relf in this match.

As Phil Littlefair has played below his allowed range at 1,285, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Littlefair would normally have been playing at level 1,446 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Relf played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to -3% and Dave Relf changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes -2.5% and for Dave Relf becomes +4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is -1.9% and for Dave Relf is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 84%, Dave Relf: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 75%, Dave Relf: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,499, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dave Relf: 1,022, level confidence: 67%.