Tim Seaton v Ray Evans (Tue 11 Jan 2011)
Match won by Tim Seaton. Result: 15-12,15-9,15-10.
Starting level for
Tim Seaton:
762, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Ray Evans:
865, level confidence: 60%.
Ray Evans to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Tim Seaton.
Tim Seaton won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Seaton played
48% better than Ray Evans in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Seaton actually played at a level of
989 and Ray Evans at a level of
666. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Seaton changes to +26% and Ray Evans changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Seaton becomes +14.1% and for Ray Evans becomes -15%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tim Seaton is +10.5% and for Ray Evans is -10.7%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ray Evans is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Seaton: 80%, Ray Evans: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Seaton: 61%, Ray Evans: 60%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tim Seaton:
837, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ray Evans:
785, level confidence: 60%.