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Tom Simcox v Chris Roper (Wed 07 Aug 2013)

Match won by Chris Roper. Result: 15-13,15-13,0-15,0-15,0-15.

Starting level for Tom Simcox: 1,702, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,486, level confidence: 62%.
Tom Simcox to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Chris Roper.

Chris Roper won 60% of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Roper played 42% better than Tom Simcox in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Roper actually played at a level of 1,893 and Tom Simcox at a level of 1,336. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Roper changes to +25% and Tom Simcox changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Roper becomes +11.5% and for Tom Simcox becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Chris Roper is +7.5% and for Tom Simcox is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Simcox is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Roper: 79%, Tom Simcox: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Roper: 62%, Tom Simcox: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Simcox: 1,648, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Chris Roper: 1,595, level confidence: 62%.