Lawrence Foster v Tom Dupuy (Wed 12 Jan 2011)
Match won by Tom Dupuy. Result: 10-15,11-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Lawrence Foster:
1,447, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Tom Dupuy:
1,718, level confidence: 63%.
Tom Dupuy to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Lawrence Foster.
Tom Dupuy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Dupuy played
61% better than Lawrence Foster in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Dupuy actually played at a level of
1,999 and Lawrence Foster at a level of
1,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy changes to +12% and Lawrence Foster changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy becomes +6.1% and for Lawrence Foster becomes -7.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tom Dupuy is +4.6% and for Lawrence Foster is -5.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Dupuy: 79%, Lawrence Foster: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Dupuy: 68%, Lawrence Foster: 62%.
A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lawrence Foster:
1,406, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tom Dupuy:
1,794, level confidence: 68%.