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Keith Farnham v Darren Matussa (Wed 07 Aug 2013)

Match won by Keith Farnham. Result: 13-15,15-5,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Keith Farnham: 2,121, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Darren Matussa: 1,511, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Keith Farnham to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Darren Matussa.

Keith Farnham won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Farnham played 32% better than Darren Matussa in this match.

In this case, Keith Farnham played at level 2,017 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Keith Farnham would normally have been playing at level 2,046 (based on typical behaviour), Darren Matussa played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Farnham changes to 0% and Darren Matussa changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Farnham becomes 0% and for Darren Matussa becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Keith Farnham is 0% and for Darren Matussa is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Farnham: 85%, Darren Matussa: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Farnham: 82%, Darren Matussa: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Farnham: 2,118, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Darren Matussa: 1,517, level confidence: 88%.