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Louis Drakes v Chris Chin (Wed 12 Jan 2011)

Match won by Louis Drakes. Result: 15-9,15-10,15-6.

Starting level for Louis Drakes: 1,549, level confidence: 21%.
Starting level for Chris Chin: 1,452, level confidence: 17%.
Louis Drakes to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Chris Chin.

Louis Drakes won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Louis Drakes played 80% better than Chris Chin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Louis Drakes actually played at a level of 2,012 and Chris Chin at a level of 1,118. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Louis Drakes changes to +24% and Chris Chin changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Louis Drakes becomes +10.7% and for Chris Chin becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Louis Drakes is +8% and for Chris Chin is -9.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Louis Drakes: 45%, Chris Chin: 41%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Louis Drakes: 35%, Chris Chin: 32%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Louis Drakes: 1,671, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Chris Chin: 1,325, level confidence: 32%.