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Paul Cousins v Kevin Springham (Tue 13 Aug 2013)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 15-13,15-8,14-16,15-13.

Starting level for Paul Cousins: 2,186, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kevin Springham: 2,513, level confidence: 59%.
Kevin Springham to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Paul Cousins.

Paul Cousins won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 23% better than Kevin Springham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 2,596 and Kevin Springham at a level of 2,116. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to +13% and Kevin Springham changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes +6% and for Kevin Springham becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is +3.9% and for Kevin Springham is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 88%, Kevin Springham: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 74%, Kevin Springham: 65%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Cousins: 2,268, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Kevin Springham: 2,455, level confidence: 65%.