John Murphy v Andy Davis (Thu 13 Jan 2011)
Match won by John Murphy. Result: 15-11,15-9,15-9.
Starting level for
John Murphy:
1,325, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Andy Davis:
1,039, level confidence: 55%.
John Murphy to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Andy Davis.
John Murphy won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Murphy played
55% better than Andy Davis in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Murphy actually played at a level of
1,461 and Andy Davis at a level of
942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 9.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Murphy changes to +6% and Andy Davis changes to -9.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Murphy becomes +4% and for Andy Davis becomes -5.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Murphy is +3% and for Andy Davis is -4.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Murphy: 91%, Andy Davis: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Murphy: 82%, Andy Davis: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John Murphy:
1,363, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Andy Davis:
994, level confidence: 67%.