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Tom Horton v Hannah Cartlidge (Wed 14 Aug 2013)

Match won by Tom Horton. Result: 15-8,15-12,12-15,11-15,15-8.

Starting level for Tom Horton: 1,168, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hannah Cartlidge: 881, level confidence: 35%.
Tom Horton to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Hannah Cartlidge.

Tom Horton won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Horton played 12% better than Hannah Cartlidge in this match.

As Tom Horton has played below his allowed range at 1,040, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Horton would normally have been playing at level 1,138 (based on typical behaviour), Hannah Cartlidge played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Horton changes to -2.2% and Hannah Cartlidge changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Horton becomes -2% and for Hannah Cartlidge becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tom Horton is -1.3% and for Hannah Cartlidge is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Horton: 87%, Hannah Cartlidge: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Horton: 80%, Hannah Cartlidge: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Horton: 1,151, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Hannah Cartlidge: 907, level confidence: 54%.