SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Marvin Rust v Obaid Safi (Thu 13 Jan 2011)

Match won by Obaid Safi. Result: 2-15,8-15,15-13,14-16.

Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,447, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Obaid Safi: 10,521, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Obaid Safi to win as he is currently playing 330% better than Marvin Rust.

Obaid Safi won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Obaid Safi played 34% better than Marvin Rust in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Obaid Safi was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,727 and 10,521 without affecting his level.

As Obaid Safi has played below his allowed range at 3,492, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Obaid Safi would normally have been playing at level 6,633 (based on typical behaviour), Marvin Rust played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 42%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Obaid Safi changes to -3.1% and Marvin Rust changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Obaid Safi becomes -1.5% and for Marvin Rust becomes +7.5%.

Given Obaid Safi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Obaid Safi is -1% and for Marvin Rust is +5.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Obaid Safi: 88%, Marvin Rust: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Obaid Safi: 49%, Marvin Rust: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,580, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Obaid Safi: 10,405, level confidence: 49%.