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Tom Brady v Phil Littlefair (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 7-15,12-15,7-15.

Starting level for Tom Brady: 1,113, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,499, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Tom Brady.

Phil Littlefair won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 73% better than Tom Brady in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Littlefair actually played at a level of 1,699 and Tom Brady at a level of 982. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to +11% and Tom Brady changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes +6% and for Tom Brady becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is +4.5% and for Tom Brady is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 85%, Tom Brady: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 75%, Tom Brady: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Brady: 1,064, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,564, level confidence: 75%.