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Roger Woodfield v Gary Slater (Tue 20 Aug 2013)

Match won by Roger Woodfield. Result: 15-12,15-13,18-16.

Starting level for Roger Woodfield: 1,052, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Gary Slater: 898, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Roger Woodfield to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Gary Slater.

Roger Woodfield won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Woodfield played 30% better than Gary Slater in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Woodfield actually played at a level of 1,106 and Gary Slater at a level of 854. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Woodfield changes to +4.8% and Gary Slater changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Woodfield becomes +3.8% and for Gary Slater becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Roger Woodfield is +2.5% and for Gary Slater is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Woodfield: 81%, Gary Slater: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Woodfield: 77%, Gary Slater: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Woodfield: 1,076, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gary Slater: 877, level confidence: 84%.