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Ingo Kelling v Mike Guest (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Ingo Kelling. Result: 15-10,10-15,15-9,5-15,15-13.

Starting level for Ingo Kelling: 1,263, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Mike Guest: 1,293, level confidence: 68%.
Mike Guest to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Ingo Kelling.

Ingo Kelling won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ingo Kelling played 7% better than Mike Guest in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ingo Kelling actually played at a level of 1,320 and Mike Guest at a level of 1,237. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling changes to +4.5% and Mike Guest changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling becomes +3.4% and for Mike Guest becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ingo Kelling is +2.5% and for Mike Guest is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ingo Kelling: 78%, Mike Guest: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ingo Kelling: 74%, Mike Guest: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ingo Kelling: 1,293, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mike Guest: 1,261, level confidence: 79%.