Shola Bello v Ian Collin (Wed 21 Aug 2013)
Match won by Shola Bello. Result: 14-16,10-15,15-12,15-9,15-6.
Starting level for
Shola Bello:
1,565, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Ian Collin:
1,716, level confidence: 56%.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Shola Bello.
Shola Bello won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shola Bello played
12% better than Ian Collin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shola Bello actually played at a level of
1,736 and Ian Collin at a level of
1,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shola Bello changes to +10.4% and Ian Collin changes to -6.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shola Bello becomes +5.5% and for Ian Collin becomes -3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Shola Bello is +3.6% and for Ian Collin is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shola Bello: 61%, Ian Collin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shola Bello: 55%, Ian Collin: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shola Bello:
1,619, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Ian Collin:
1,672, level confidence: 68%.