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Daren Olley v Tim Seaton (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Daren Olley. Result: 15-7,15-5,15-3.

Starting level for Daren Olley: 958, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Seaton: 837, level confidence: 60%.
Daren Olley to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Tim Seaton.

Daren Olley won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daren Olley played 200% better than Tim Seaton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daren Olley actually played at a level of 1,551 and Tim Seaton at a level of 517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daren Olley changes to +43% and Tim Seaton changes to -57%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daren Olley becomes +21.6% and for Tim Seaton becomes -27%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Daren Olley is +16% and for Tim Seaton is -19%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Daren Olley is limited to +10% and Tim Seaton is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daren Olley: 88%, Tim Seaton: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daren Olley: 55%, Tim Seaton: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daren Olley: 1,052, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Tim Seaton: 796, level confidence: 48%.