SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Carl Noffki v Karl Fenwick (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Carl Noffki. Result: 5-15,16-14,15-7,15-5.

Starting level for Carl Noffki: 928, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,379, level confidence: 60%.
Karl Fenwick to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Carl Noffki.

Carl Noffki won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carl Noffki played 25% better than Karl Fenwick in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carl Noffki actually played at a level of 1,264 and Karl Fenwick at a level of 1,013. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carl Noffki changes to +24% and Karl Fenwick changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carl Noffki becomes +13% and for Karl Fenwick becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Carl Noffki is +9.8% and for Karl Fenwick is -9.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carl Noffki: 85%, Karl Fenwick: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carl Noffki: 62%, Karl Fenwick: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carl Noffki: 1,017, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,256, level confidence: 57%.