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Jon Smith Squire v Peter Iszatt (Wed 21 Aug 2013)

Match won by Jon Smith Squire. Result: 15-10,15-17,4-15,15-7,15-12.

Starting level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,580, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,420, level confidence: 69%.
Jon Smith Squire to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Peter Iszatt.

Jon Smith Squire won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Smith Squire played 9% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Smith Squire actually played at a level of 1,562 and Peter Iszatt at a level of 1,436. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire changes to -1% and Peter Iszatt changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire becomes -0.8% and for Peter Iszatt becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire is -0.5% and for Peter Iszatt is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Smith Squire: 87%, Peter Iszatt: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Smith Squire: 86%, Peter Iszatt: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,569, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,427, level confidence: 82%.