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Gavin Bone v Michael Broadbent (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 7-15,16-14,9-15,3-15.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 767, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,469, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Gavin Bone.

Michael Broadbent won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 39% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Broadbent was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,131 and 1,469 without affecting his level.

As Michael Broadbent has played below his allowed range at 1,100, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Broadbent would normally have been playing at level 1,308 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Bone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to -1.8% and Gavin Bone changes to +7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes -1.5% and for Gavin Bone becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is -1.1% and for Gavin Bone is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 85%, Gavin Bone: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 72%, Gavin Bone: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 796, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,451, level confidence: 72%.