Alan Howell v Nick Cartwright (Tue 18 Jan 2011)
Match won by Nick Cartwright. Result: 15-13,5-15,12-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Alan Howell:
1,578, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Cartwright:
1,398, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Nick Cartwright.
Nick Cartwright won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cartwright played
28% better than Alan Howell in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cartwright actually played at a level of
1,682 and Alan Howell at a level of
1,311. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cartwright changes to +19% and Alan Howell changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cartwright becomes +9.1% and for Alan Howell becomes -8.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nick Cartwright is +6.9% and for Alan Howell is -6.5%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alan Howell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cartwright: 85%, Alan Howell: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cartwright: 71%, Alan Howell: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Howell:
1,501, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nick Cartwright:
1,492, level confidence: 71%.