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Ian Lennox v Paul Drakes (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Ian Lennox. Result: 15-11,7-15,14-16,15-11,15-5.

Starting level for Ian Lennox: 971, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Paul Drakes: 944, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ian Lennox to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Paul Drakes.

Ian Lennox won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Lennox played 11% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Lennox actually played at a level of 1,008 and Paul Drakes at a level of 909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Lennox changes to +3.8% and Paul Drakes changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Lennox becomes +3.4% and for Paul Drakes becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Lennox is +2.6% and for Paul Drakes is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Lennox: 84%, Paul Drakes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Lennox: 80%, Paul Drakes: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Lennox: 994, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Paul Drakes: 919, level confidence: 82%.