Chris Lynam v Paul Green (Tue 18 Jan 2011)
Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 13-15,15-7,15-9,15-6.
Starting level for
Chris Lynam:
2,068, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Green:
1,880, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Chris Lynam to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Paul Green.
Chris Lynam won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played
35% better than Paul Green in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of
2,295 and Paul Green at a level of
1,694. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +10.4% and Paul Green changes to -9.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +5% and for Paul Green becomes -5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +3.8% and for Paul Green is -3.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 84%, Paul Green: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 76%, Paul Green: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Lynam:
2,143, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Paul Green:
1,840, level confidence: 78%.