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Manny Hopkins v Neil Newbery (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Neil Newbery. Result: 7-15,12-15,8-15.

Starting level for Manny Hopkins: 1,132, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Neil Newbery: 1,858, level confidence: 50%.
Neil Newbery to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Manny Hopkins.

Neil Newbery won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Newbery played 67% better than Manny Hopkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Newbery actually played at a level of 1,872 and Manny Hopkins at a level of 1,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Newbery changes to +0.6% and Manny Hopkins changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Newbery becomes +0.5% and for Manny Hopkins becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Neil Newbery is +0.4% and for Manny Hopkins is -0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Newbery: 71%, Manny Hopkins: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Newbery: 71%, Manny Hopkins: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Manny Hopkins: 1,127, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Neil Newbery: 1,862, level confidence: 71%.