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James Nield v Ben Andrews (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by James Nield. Result: 15-5,15-13,16-14.

Starting level for James Nield: 1,794, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Ben Andrews: 1,622, level confidence: 67%.
James Nield to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Ben Andrews.

James Nield won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Nield played 47% better than Ben Andrews in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Nield actually played at a level of 2,071 and Ben Andrews at a level of 1,405. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Nield changes to +15% and Ben Andrews changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Nield becomes +6.9% and for Ben Andrews becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Nield is +5.1% and for Ben Andrews is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Nield: 77%, Ben Andrews: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Nield: 67%, Ben Andrews: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Nield: 1,883, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ben Andrews: 1,546, level confidence: 71%.