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Steven Malduca v Ian Taylor (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by Steven Malduca. Result: 15-7,15-9,15-13.

Starting level for Steven Malduca: 1,445, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,164, level confidence: 52%.
Steven Malduca to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Ian Taylor.

Steven Malduca won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Malduca played 55% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Malduca actually played at a level of 1,615 and Ian Taylor at a level of 1,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Malduca changes to +8.6% and Ian Taylor changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Malduca becomes +4.9% and for Ian Taylor becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Steven Malduca is +3.7% and for Ian Taylor is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Malduca: 80%, Ian Taylor: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Malduca: 72%, Ian Taylor: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Malduca: 1,496, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,110, level confidence: 65%.