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James Cooper v Phil Jenkins (Tue 18 Jan 2011)

Match won by James Cooper. Result: 15-13,15-11,7-15,8-15,15-8.

Starting level for James Cooper: 2,043, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,670, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
James Cooper to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Phil Jenkins.

James Cooper won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Cooper played 7% better than Phil Jenkins in this match.

As James Cooper has played below his allowed range at 1,880, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that James Cooper would normally have been playing at level 2,016 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Cooper changes to -5% and Phil Jenkins changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Cooper becomes -3.1% and for Phil Jenkins becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Cooper is -2.3% and for Phil Jenkins is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Cooper: 82%, Phil Jenkins: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Cooper: 76%, Phil Jenkins: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Cooper: 1,995, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Phil Jenkins: 1,710, level confidence: 80%.