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Ian Taylor v Ron Williams (Wed 19 Jan 2011)

Match won by Ian Taylor. Result: 15-5,15-10,15-7.

Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,021, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Ron Williams: 536, level confidence: 10%.
Ian Taylor to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Ron Williams.

Ian Taylor won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Taylor played 105% better than Ron Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Taylor actually played at a level of 1,058 and Ron Williams at a level of 517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Taylor changes to +0.5% and Ron Williams changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Taylor becomes +0.5% and for Ron Williams becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Taylor is +0.3% and for Ron Williams is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Taylor: 76%, Ron Williams: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Taylor: 73%, Ron Williams: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,023, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ron Williams: 525, level confidence: 31%.