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Gary Slater v Nick Cooper (Tue 27 Aug 2013)

Match won by Nick Cooper. Result: 9-15,16-14,6-15,5-15.

Starting level for Gary Slater: 877, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Cooper: 1,006, level confidence: 68%.
Nick Cooper to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Gary Slater.

Nick Cooper won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cooper played 38% better than Gary Slater in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cooper actually played at a level of 1,103 and Gary Slater at a level of 800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cooper changes to +9% and Gary Slater changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cooper becomes +5.9% and for Gary Slater becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Nick Cooper is +3.8% and for Gary Slater is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cooper: 83%, Gary Slater: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cooper: 75%, Gary Slater: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Slater: 848, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Nick Cooper: 1,043, level confidence: 75%.