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Chris Roper v Phil Power (Wed 28 Aug 2013)

Match won by Chris Roper. Result: 11-15,13-15,15-3,15-11,15-9.

Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,624, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Power: 1,894, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Chris Roper.

Chris Roper won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Roper played 15% better than Phil Power in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Roper actually played at a level of 1,881 and Phil Power at a level of 1,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Roper changes to +15% and Phil Power changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Roper becomes +7.1% and for Phil Power becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Chris Roper is +4.6% and for Phil Power is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Roper: 85%, Phil Power: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Roper: 74%, Phil Power: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Roper: 1,696, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Phil Power: 1,853, level confidence: 77%.