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Rich Anthony v Mark Castle (Wed 19 Jan 2011)

Match won by Mark Castle. Result: 11-15,22-20,9-15,10-15.

Starting level for Rich Anthony: 1,411, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Mark Castle: 950, level confidence: 68%.
Rich Anthony to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Mark Castle.

Mark Castle won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Castle played 25% better than Rich Anthony in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Castle actually played at a level of 1,294 and Rich Anthony at a level of 1,036. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Castle changes to +26% and Rich Anthony changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Castle becomes +13.7% and for Rich Anthony becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mark Castle is +10.3% and for Rich Anthony is -9.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rich Anthony is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Castle: 82%, Rich Anthony: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Castle: 60%, Rich Anthony: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rich Anthony: 1,342, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Mark Castle: 1,043, level confidence: 60%.