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Craig Dancy v Charlie Harvey (Wed 19 Jan 2011)

Match won by Craig Dancy. Result: 8-15,15-10,15-8,15-1.

Starting level for Craig Dancy: 1,212, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Charlie Harvey: 714, level confidence: 64%.
Craig Dancy to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Charlie Harvey.

Craig Dancy won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Dancy played 35% better than Charlie Harvey in this match.

As Craig Dancy has played below his allowed range at 989, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Craig Dancy would normally have been playing at level 1,120 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Harvey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Dancy changes to -1.9% and Charlie Harvey changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Dancy becomes -1.8% and for Charlie Harvey becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Craig Dancy is -1.3% and for Charlie Harvey is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Dancy: 71%, Charlie Harvey: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Dancy: 63%, Charlie Harvey: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Dancy: 1,194, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Charlie Harvey: 733, level confidence: 71%.