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Nick Boardman v Scott Gregory (Wed 19 Jan 2011)

Match won by Scott Gregory. Result: 11-15,8-15,17-15,13-15.

Starting level for Nick Boardman: 1,451, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Gregory: 1,151, level confidence: 64%.
Nick Boardman to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Scott Gregory.

Scott Gregory won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Gregory played 24% better than Nick Boardman in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Gregory actually played at a level of 1,440 and Nick Boardman at a level of 1,160. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Gregory changes to +22% and Nick Boardman changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Gregory becomes +11.4% and for Nick Boardman becomes -8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Scott Gregory is +8.5% and for Nick Boardman is -6.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Boardman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Gregory: 80%, Nick Boardman: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Gregory: 64%, Nick Boardman: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Boardman: 1,380, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Scott Gregory: 1,248, level confidence: 64%.